We are all on a knife edge when it comes to international shipping south of the Suez Canal. After the Houthi attacks in Yemen, large shipping companies have had to move strategically to protect the safety of their staff and cargo. Avoiding passage through the Suez Canal became the key move, instead opting for the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.
At the moment, almost 4 million TEUs, corresponding to 291 cargo ships, are plying the seas around Africa. But this number is likely to soon grow to 378 ships, accounting for around 22% of global container trade.
What does all this mean for the trade routes you are so familiar with?
Let's start with the fact that transit times towards the Mediterranean and Black Sea could be extended by 15-20 days, while towards Northern Europe a delay of around 15 days is expected. We may also see a reduction in equipment availability at home ports and an increase in fuel and insurance costs.
This problem was added in conjunction with the Chinese New Year, a period in which China experiences a significant pause from a production and distribution point of view. The combined effect of these factors will be significantly felt in Italy, especially in the first quarter of the year.
As time passes, we may see an improvement in the international shipping situation. Alternative routes could be optimized to ensure faster transit times and lower costs. Furthermore, as the year progresses, China may gradually resume its production and distribution, contributing to greater availability of goods and shorter delivery times.
However, there is also a risk that the situation will worsen further. Increased congestion at alternative ports could cause further delays and increase transportation costs. Furthermore, if China faces prolonged disruptions in production and distribution due to internal or external factors, we could see a longer-lasting impact on the global economy, resulting in a slowdown in trade activities and increased costs for businesses internationally .
Source
https://www.rainews.it/video/2024/01/il-blocco-del-canale-di-suez-triplica-il-costo-del-trasporto-delle-merci-in-italia-bdaff569-f74c-4240-b012-01e973a3e3e7.html
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